Noticeable slowdown in Dublin house price growth Supply metrics offer some encouragement As we head into year end, the dominant underlying feature of the Irish residential property market remains the deficit in supply. However, over the course of 2018, there has been some further improvement in the supply picture. The latest update to the CSO’s…
October was a torrid month for equity markets, and while November saw some pause for breath, the environment for equity investors remains quite difficult, very volatile, and intensely uncertain. The main problem for equity markets at the moment it that the euphoria created by the strong synchronised recovery in the global economy in 2017 has lost…
Macro-Economic Background to Budget 2019 Budget 2019 was the third and possibly the final budget to be presented by Paschal Donohoe in the current Dáil. As was the case with his last two budgets, Budget 2019 did not pose anything like the sorts of challenges and difficulties that his two immediate predecessors faced in framing…
Economists always struggle with the vagaries of politics and have difficulty dealing with the fact that the most scientific economic forecasting and analysis very often gets blown out of the water by the words and actions of politicians, particularly those of the irrational kind. Of some consolation is the fact that economics will almost always win…
New measurement shows new supply at lower levels than previously estimated. The Central Statistics Office recently launched a new measure of housing supply. This was in response to issues relating to the previous ‘completions’ data, complied by the Department of Housing using ESB connections. In recent years, it was considered to be overstating the level…
Taking out a mortgage to buy a home is the biggest financial commitment most people will make in their lives. Therefore, it is important to get the best deal that you can on the loan. However, even if you get the best deal when you take out your mortgage, over time cheaper mortgages may become…
The process of interest rate normalisation continues apace in the United States. On Wednesday night the US Federal Reserve Bank increased interest rates by 0.25%, taking the target range for the key Federal Funds Rate to 1.75% to 2%. This rate has been taken up from zero in December 2015. The Federal Reserve move this week…
To date, 2018 is turning out to be a very interesting year in terms of economics, financial markets and politics, but there is a remarkable sense of calm in financial markets. On the economic front the very strong momentum evident during 2017 has undoubtedly experienced a bit of a speed wobble. Growth virtually everywhere has…
Double digit price growth amid on-going big supply shortfall AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit March 2018 Upward pressure on prices continues amid persistent supply deficit The latest data on house prices from the CSO show a further acceleration in the rate of growth at the start of the year. Nationally, prices rose by 12.5% in year-on-year…
March 2009 was a pivotal month for global equity markets. After a horrendous period following the implosion of the US sub-prime market and the global economy, that month markets decided that enough was enough and that equities had fallen as much as they should. Despite subsequent massive global economic problems almost everywhere; the implosion of…